Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 2.033371 2.695762 3.593121 4.928088 6.917824e+00 9.865857e+00 14.749900
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 1.428433 2.170944 3.371175 5.568872 9.780907e+00 1.821183e+01 38.660076
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 1.017042 1.722585 3.041007 5.938179 1.299221e+01 3.237524e+01 107.083760
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.819217 1.541133 3.100944 7.265746 2.065641e+01 7.634141e+01 525.823448
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.660554 1.362393 3.091823 8.665502 3.272674e+01 1.992944e+02 4885.530075
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.547044 1.228148 3.130013 10.547753 5.511099e+01 6.714593e+02 405295.616570
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.453794 1.097630 3.110963 12.549186 9.348044e+01 3.023895e+03 NaN
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.354407 0.901998 2.755643 12.709468 1.269327e+02 1.211082e+04 NaN
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.275195 0.727954 2.357353 12.117049 1.567148e+02 5.543042e+04 NaN
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.230014 0.637477 2.218563 13.112168 2.445225e+02 2.067457e+06 NaN
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.204631 0.599250 2.276419 16.087258 5.119920e+02 NaN NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.187660 0.582217 2.431594 21.107802 1.401514e+03 NaN NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.164961 0.537377 2.437484 25.602976 3.953657e+03 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.137401 0.460183 2.189968 25.837899 7.446031e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.113695 0.388454 1.914471 24.651155 1.224760e+04 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.101188 0.358805 1.889639 28.906325 5.549564e+04 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.090019 0.329821 1.843872 33.200704 4.156614e+05 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.081377 0.308456 1.837002 39.664328 2.706975e+07 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.073522 0.287177 1.810704 46.458692 NaN NaN NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.063577 0.251139 1.618104 44.425169 NaN NaN NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.054513 0.216318 1.406084 39.698539 NaN NaN NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.049037 0.198113 1.333561 42.161553 NaN NaN NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.046011 0.191582 1.368952 52.971885 NaN NaN NaN